Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 28.845729 34.274846 40.199235 47.113149 54.928205 63.456007 73.432206
2025-08-03 21.218843 28.520576 37.239377 48.279904 61.741251 77.471904 97.084365
2025-08-10 16.085345 23.943805 34.035042 47.647671 65.209515 86.770607 114.876199
2025-08-17 13.004641 21.154328 32.287335 48.107503 69.459305 96.700551 133.434723
2025-08-24 10.549375 18.669370 30.419430 47.921129 72.501414 104.919768 149.910043
2025-08-31 8.309339 16.033450 27.877364 46.350455 73.301199 109.969436 162.225937
2025-09-07 7.092770 14.756931 27.105626 47.119868 77.240186 119.257261 180.407361
2025-09-14 5.758258 13.010410 25.333971 46.128557 78.439985 124.669378 193.379851
2025-09-21 5.042498 12.224689 24.986433 47.243789 82.730689 134.535219 212.815203
2025-09-28 3.965113 10.519181 22.835690 45.205159 81.995860 137.004247 221.757924
2025-10-05 3.567597 10.107216 22.898991 46.800682 86.961725 147.995102 243.272578
2025-10-12 3.185193 9.647183 22.804166 48.084172 91.452445 158.399086 264.222104
2025-10-19 2.821543 9.203159 22.777205 49.650122 96.773962 170.718502 289.130134
2025-10-26 2.457302 8.679389 22.538473 50.837480 101.585468 182.543707 313.883454
2025-11-02 1.996307 7.774322 21.376070 50.177006 103.179858 189.348793 331.219139
2025-11-09 1.696129 7.214260 20.853931 50.655730 106.721971 199.332501 353.697064
2025-11-16 1.401894 6.571865 20.041067 50.461632 109.019044 207.342277 373.304607
2025-11-23 1.083256 5.723563 18.598430 48.825694 108.567294 210.767857 385.744741
2025-11-30 0.932644 5.392046 18.349173 49.627135 112.609797 221.770904 410.520034
2025-12-07 0.733647 4.787210 17.298041 48.594537 113.119485 226.798036 425.789079
2025-12-14 0.642512 4.577817 17.253497 49.756205 117.859847 239.182903 453.323554
2025-12-21 0.471293 3.912176 15.822022 47.632506 116.061538 240.165556 462.142263
2025-12-28 0.423980 3.819681 16.021015 49.294677 121.824371 254.544851 493.500837